Although the calendar says March, there is still snow on the ground and the forecast says that there will be several more inches of snow tomorrow.  So, once again everyone is tasked with running to the grocery and buying milk, bread and eggs in case they get stranded inside for six hours or so during the day.  (Apparently the onset of snow causes most people to have an insatiable  appetite for french toast, this is another mystery for another day.)

But as I sit here pondering my plans for tomorrow I think about all the freezing rain that was in today’s forecast that did not happen.  I think about the major snowstorms in December and January that did not happen.  I think about the temperature forecast that have been off by more than twenty degrees and I wonder if it will really snow tomorrow.

I remember reading an article in the local paper last fall that really went out on a limb by predicting that this winter the temperature would be “above normal, below normal, or close to normal.”   I am certain that took a lot of work and professional judgement and I will admit they nailed that one.  Of course I understand that Mother Nature is temperamental and unpredictable.  I know that weather forecasting is as much an art as a science, but it seems like the artwork has been pretty ugly lately!   

From the exhaustive research I have conducted on the internet over the last five minutes, it appears that weather predictions, like all predictions, become less reliable over time.  You can place a little more faith in what you local weather person says the weather will be tomorrow that what he says it will be on Sunday.  This reminded me of the weatherman on Channel 2 in Dayton, Ohio in the 70’s.  The two most memorable things I recall about him were that 1) he had one of the best names for a weatherman, Dewey Hopper and 2) his very short-term forecasts were always right because instead of being in the studio, he did the weather outside in the parking lot so he could tell you if it was raining at the moment.

So, here is my long-term forecast:  there will be a gradual warming trend as the days grow longer until the latter part of June.  There will be intermittent sunshine mixed with rain and the occasional possibility of severe weather.